AI Impact on Jobs: Surprising Findings
Recent findings reveal an unexpected landscape regarding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment. While many workers express concerns about AI automation threatening their jobs, new research from Vanguard indicates a contrary reality; jobs that are deemed highly exposed to AI are actually experiencing faster growth than the overall job market post-COVID-19.
AI Automation and Job Growth
The anxiety around AI taking over jobs has been fueled by alarmist voices from industry leaders and reports, including insights from a Federal Reserve report. However, Vanguard’s analysis shows that during the post-COVID period from mid-2023 to mid-2025, employment in AI-exposed occupations grew by 1.7%. This rate surpasses the 1% growth seen during the pre-COVID period. The paradox here is notable: occupations such as office clerks, HR assistants, and data scientists—traditionally viewed as vulnerable—are seeing job growth instead of attrition.
Wage Growth Amid Automation Anxiety
Moreover, the wage dynamics in these roles provide a further twist. Between the pre-COVID and post-COVID periods, AI-exposed jobs saw real wages rise from 0.1% to 3.8%, a commendable leap compared to the stagnation of other jobs. This could suggest that fears about AI’s damaging effects on wages may not be as founded as previously thought. Vanguard’s analysis suggests that while AI influences work processes, it does not yet appear to be a significant driver of job or wage declines.
Divergent Views on AI’s Role in Employment
This data stands in stark contrast to dire predictions from some economic figures, like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who warned of a significant elimination of entry-level jobs soon. Although some anecdotal evidence from the Federal Reserve highlights instances of AI-enabled reductions in entry-level roles, a comprehensive view of the job market reflects more resilience than anticipated. Schickling, a senior economist at Vanguard, emphasizes that the technology has not yet matured sufficiently to threaten widespread job losses.
Entry-Level Workers and Job Market Reality
The job market’s current state indicates that entry-level workers are not disproportionately affected by AI. Instead, the enrollment rates in 401(k) plans for younger workers remain consistent. This resilience fosters an argument against the narrative that AI will obsolete entry-level job roles swiftly. Cisco President Jeetu Patel supports this, expressing skepticism about the notion that humans will become obsolete in the near term.
Limitations of Current AI Technology
Despite the optimism surrounding job growth in AI-exposed sectors, current AI systems do possess limitations that hinder their capabilities. Issues such as inaccuracies or ‘hallucinations’ remain prevalent, underscoring the notion that human oversight is still crucial. As technology develops, it’s essential to keep an eye on the evolving relationship between AI tools and the labor force, recognizing that while some positions may be threatened, the overall landscape is not as bleak as predicted.
As we move forward in the era of AI, striking a balance between technological advancement and job security will be paramount for a thriving workforce.